May 13, 2008 4:25 pm US/Eastern
Playing The Odds With Big Brown
BALTIMORE (AP) ―
A short price in the Preakness could be good news for Big Brown.
Post-time favorites have captured 68 of 133 runnings of the middle jewel of Triple Crown, a race run in two divisions in 1918.
Big Brown will undoubtedly be a heavy-favorite Saturday at Pimlico following a dominant win in the Kentucky Derby.
Only one Derby challenger, 17th-place finisher Gayego, is back for another try. Many of the other 11 expected runners appear outclassed and overmatched.
As a result, Big Brown will likely join the circle of odds-on Preakness favorites.
Following the post-position draw Wednesday evening, Pimlico handicapper Frank Carulli will release the morning line. He was still wrestling with the odds Tuesday.
"Not yet," Carulli said when asked if he had determined Big Brown's starting price. "It will be in the 3-5 range. You want to make it as accurate as you can."
Since the introduction of pari-mutuel wagering in 1911, 27 favorites started at odds of less than even money. Seventeen backed up that strong support by delivering Preakness victories.
The two shortest-priced horses in Preakness history, Triple Crown winner Citation (1948) and Spectacular Bid (1979) went off 1-10. Both posted easy 51/2-length wins, rewarding their backers with $2.20 for every $2 bet to win.
Smarty Jones was the last odds-on Preakness winner, paying $3.40.
A small price does not always guarantee victory.
Fusaichi Pegasus (second in 2000) and Riva Ridge (fourth in 1972) jointly hold the dubious Preakness record as the lowest-priced losers at 3-10.
Barbaro was the most recent odds-on favorite to fail. The 1-2 shot suffered a broken leg shortly after the start of the race in 2006.
(© 2008 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
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